Nuclear Iran, Reloaded

In the Reloaded version of my blog, I'll write about Iran, its nuclear program, its culture, and most importantly, myself.

Monday, February 21, 2005

What if EU-Iran talks fails?

I suggest you read the LATimes' Iran Will Dominate Bush's Europe Trip, where the authors say:

"Some experts predicted that transatlantic relations would be further strained if the European initiative were to collapse and the U.S. tried to take the issue to the Security Council."

This complicated issue does not seem to have a binary solution (an engineering way of saying "straightforward solution"), similar to what Iraq's problem had (a solution that led to Iraq's occupation).

Two scenarios exist:

1. United States can refuse to back the EU-Iran talks, which will doom it to failure. This would make the problem more sophisticated when US wants to take the case to Security Council and some veto powered nations (such as Europeans/Russia/China) resist. Some may say a war would follow. But I don't even think that military action against Iran is an option on Washington's table, because: (1) US is still struggling in Iraq (2) Oil prices are already high, (3) The public and old allies of the States wouldn't buy America's accusations about Iran after Iraq's War. Accusations that are proven wrong by through IAEA inspections, and blunted by Putin's recent statement. (4) American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan (and also Israel) are in reach of Iran's missiles.

2. United States can back the negotiations which wouldn't be possible without taking part in it. That way United States may have to 1. remove sanctions against Iran, 2. release the frozen assets of Iran, 3. deport the known Iraq-based terrorist organizations that oppose the Iranian regime (such as National Council of Resistance of Iran), and 4. remove Iran from the list of nations advocating terrorists (or simply stop addressing Iran! :) ). I personally don't think Iran would settle for anything less if it comes to negotiations with the great Satan!. Anything less is probably not sufficient enough for Iran to satisfy its hardliners when it abandons its right to develop nuclear fuel. Whatever Iran is supposed to do (and will do) in addition to scraping its enrichment facilities, will not be broadcasted.

Any other option you think?

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