Welcome to New York

Hugo asks why Iran’s case should be taken to UNSC this soon. I have two explanations:

(1). To sandwich Iran between deadlines and pressure Iran to accept Russian’s offer. In an earlier meeting, US convinced China and Russia that taking Iran to UNSC would make Iran listen and promised not to seek sanctions (see my earlier post in September).

(2). US will be holding the presidency of the UNSC during the month of February. I am not sure as how much this would affect the actions by the UNSC, but I think this does have an effect on the decisions.

I have become tired of reading what Iran should or should not have done to avoid the situation it is in now; therefore I am not adding anything to it. Let think what Iran should do in future.

Now that Iran has been reported to UNSC, there are two possible paths Iran can follow:

1. Do what it has warned it’d do: Block IAEA’s snap inspections and start industrial enrichment. This would mean that Iran is confronting almost 77% of the world. This equals isolation. It means that Iran is up for the escalation of the situation. What Iran can gain with doing so is nothing but mastering the fuel cycle (in fact that would be contingent upon overcoming the technical difficulties, which takes months). And then what? Does it make Iran a better place to live? NO. Does it make Iran more vulnerable? YES.

2. The second strategy, which I have suggested several times, is to back off and not get engaged with the majority (Iranian officials still think that US manipulates others to vote against Iran, but this is the way it works: whoever has the power, has the majority). They can suspend for 5 years, let the inspectors inspect, and at the same time make substantial changes. This way they do not let the matter out of their hands.

The new government has probably found out that by oppressing the media they only fool themselves: they only rearrange their prejudices when they think they are taking everything into account.