Nuclear Iran, Reloaded

In the Reloaded version of my blog, I'll write about Iran, its nuclear program, its culture, and most importantly, myself.

Sunday, February 05, 2006

Welcome to New York

UN Security Council
(1). To sandwich Iran between deadlines and pressure Iran to accept Russian’s offer. In an earlier meeting, US convinced China and Russia that taking Iran to UNSC would make Iran listen and promised not to seek sanctions (see my earlier post in September).
(2). US will be holding the presidency of the UNSC during the month of February. I am not sure as how much this would affect the actions by the UNSC, but I think this does have an effect on the decisions.
I have become tired of reading what Iran should or should not have done to avoid the situation it is in now; therefore I am not adding anything to it. Let think what Iran should do in future.

Now that Iran has been reported to UNSC, there are two possible paths Iran can follow:
    1. Do what it has warned it’d do: Block IAEA’s snap inspections and start industrial enrichment. This would mean that Iran is confronting almost 77% of the world. This equals isolation. It means that Iran is up for the escalation of the situation. What Iran can gain with doing so is nothing but mastering the fuel cycle (in fact that would be contingent upon overcoming the technical difficulties, which takes months). And then what? Does it make Iran a better place to live? NO. Does it make Iran more vulnerable? YES.
    2. The second strategy, which I have suggested several times, is to back off and not get engaged with the majority (Iranian officials still think that US manipulates others to vote against Iran, but this is the way it works: whoever has the power, has the majority). They can suspend for 5 years, let the inspectors inspect, and at the same time make substantial changes. This way they do not let the matter out of their hands.
The new government has probably found out that by oppressing the media they only fool themselves: they only rearrange their prejudices when they think they are taking everything into account.

3 Comments:

Anonymous sahamdarjoz said...

what about the people in Iran? They have been told several times that we are going to have the complete domestic cycle!!
The third way is to follow Lybia. Send everything to US. They might probebly get rid of Bushehr plant which will never ever work

Sun Feb 05, 01:14:00 PM 2006  
Blogger Amir said...

The 3rd senario is possible, but not likly. I think it would happen only if force is used against Iran.

Sun Feb 05, 09:13:00 PM 2006  
Blogger theBhc said...

Given what appears to be the inevitable expected push by the US that Iran is doing something untoward, I doubt very much that Iran could have done anything to appease US misgivings short of completely disbanding its nuclear ambitions. Bush/Cheney have, as usual, been on a crusade to convince the world that Iran cannot be trusted, an odd position considering that it is the US that is the one who most assuredly cannot be trusted when it comes to declaring threats to the world.

What is so obviously unbelievable is that the EU, especially the EU-3, is buying this line. How much more sabre rattling can the Bush administration get away with before everyone says enough?

Sat Feb 11, 01:39:00 PM 2006  

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