Iran solution
I am summarizing my thoughts here:
- I don't think Iran will accept the Russian proposal the way United States wants it to be.
- I don't think sanctions against Iran will result in anything but an increase in oil prices.
- I don't think referral to UNSC will result in anything but an end to inspections.
- I don't think attacking Iran's nuclear sites will result in anything but encouraging the regime to go nuclear.
- I don't think invasion of Iran is possible.
- I don't think Iran wants to be isolated.
The only solution I can think of is to ask Iran to suspend its programs for 5 years, provide her with nuclear fuel, and build mutual trust. 5 years is long enough to ease the tensions, and short enough for Iran to broadcast it as a temporary suspension (and to see if she is being played with). I Also can't think of any better time for Iran and US to negotiate and make up their attitudes. (I see benefits for US in Iraq, Palestine, and Afghanistan and I see more benefits for Iran).
posted by Amir @ Friday, January 27, 2006
7 Comments:
Hi Amir,
I agree will all of your bullet points, however I don't think I agree with your solution; I doubt that Iran will accept to suspend their nuclear program for an entire 5 years.
Iran stopped its nuclear enrichment and processing activities a year and a half ago, voluntarily, when they started engagin in talks with the EU3. They restarted some activities last August and then more activities this January, and I believe that those decisions to restart had a lot to do with their frustration at the negotiations progressing so slowly.
Iran has been developing its nuclear program for over 30 years now, and I don't think they view with much enthusiasm delaying this for 5 more years.
The days of oil are counted, and they have to reduce their internal oil consumption in order to export the maximum of it. That means switching more of their internal energy production to nuclear.
Thanks Hugo for your comment.
Given the situation Iran is in now, they are not able to take off without paying a price. That price seems to be isolation and loss of their dignity and prestige. What they want to get out of their nuclear program, as I see it, is to have independence in fuel production (and also deterrence). I think it would be a good deal if they suspend for 5 years (with possible extensions) contingent upon receiving nuclear fuel.
By the way, I still don't think Iran should give up its research program under any circumstance.
I am not agree that high oil prices has such a huge effect. we all remeber oil was around 12$ in 1998 and now it is testing 70$ 8 years later (roughly 60% increase annually). I agree with a short term increase in volatility in the market, but the final prices would not be so affected afterall and if affected what would happen? for the last 5 years the trend was up (60%/ year) and most of analysts beleive in the continous bullish trend for oil. I see these talks about oil crisis more like a domestic plan to assure the people of iran of a bright (nuclear?) future.
Hi Amir,
Is there more to this post? I seem to be seeing a big blank area above the bullets points. I'm curious as to what you are saying, if it is more that what is visible right now.
thanks,
theBhc
Hello theBHC,
No. There is nothing above the bullet points.
I noticed you've been using FireFox on a mac OS X. My blog is optimized for Internet Explorer and has some problems with FireFox. Sorry. I'll have it fixed as soon possible.
Good point Sahamdarjoz,
This is a good point to think about, however, higher oil prices increases the chance of confrontation. (which would reverse all the benefits to losses)
It is very sad to say that I see a military confrontation in front of us. And that would not be an attack on nuclear sites. It would be invasion of southern Iraninan states.
Does iran have zero options for other sources of energy? Hydroelectric, solar, and wind come to mind. While they are more expensive in the short run, they could also help to alleve Iran's energy issues to a certain extent while improving its indisputably shoddy image on the world stage.
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