Nuclear Iran, Reloaded

In the Reloaded version of my blog, I'll write about Iran, its nuclear program, its culture, and most importantly, myself.

Monday, May 09, 2005

Additional protocol to be ratified

Iran says it'll resume enrichment and is pushing to get an answer from the EU3 before Iran's next presidential elections. Some analysts believe that the warnings are coming from the Iranian negotiators who want to get better jobs in the next government.

Iranian negotiators may also think that this is the right time to pressure the west in another way: all the NPT members are gathered in one place (UN in NewYork) and Iranians can convey and spread their message pretty easily without going through the western broadcasting channels. Western media may or may not say that Iran has the right to enrich Uranium, most of them do say that Iran had a covert nuclear program for over two decades, but few of them say that Iran's mistakes during the 18 years of activities were categorized as failures (in reporting the activities) and not breaches by IAEA officials.

On the other hand, United States may change the focus of the same gathering to Iran's resumption of the enrichment activities and its intimate thread to the internatioanl community. But it'd be really hard for Americans to cover up their noncompliance with NPT (by refusing to scrap their stockpile of nuclear bombs) and to accuse Iran of seeking nuclear bombs at the same time.

Meanwhile, Iran's parliment is supposed to ratify the already-signed bill of additional protocol (that allows IAEA to inspect the nuclear sites on a short time notice). The conservative members of the parliment (that form the majority) have already warned that they will not ratify the bill IF the Uranium enrichment is not part of the deal with Europe. The additional protocol is signed and operational now, but not if the parliment doesn't authorize.

Iran maintains that it can resist sactions (and that the sanctions have made them self-sustaining in the past three decades). Direct millitary action is also not effective. Iran may think that the only remaining options are: (1) A nuclear Iran under inspection of IAEA (2) A potentially nuclear Iran with no intensive inspections. They think they are playing smart.


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