Nuclear Iran, Reloaded
In the Reloaded version of my blog, I'll write about Iran, its nuclear program, its culture, and most importantly, myself.
The Last Resort
Could this be a possible scenario?
Iran is sent to UNSC. Further IAEA inspections are not permitted. UNSC orders Iran to be cooperative. Iran rejects the orders. US attacks the southern states of Iran and CNN broadcasts the invasion as "an attack to block the source of income" for a country that seeks nuclear weapons. (and gets away with all the money). Iran scraps all its nuclear programs under economic pressure. US creates another puppet Arab state on the north side of the Persian Gulf.
I am summarizing my thoughts here:
I don't think Iran will accept the Russian proposal the way United States wants it to be.
I don't think sanctions against Iran will result in anything but an increase in oil prices.
I don't think referral to UNSC will result in anything but an end to inspections.
I don't think attacking Iran's nuclear sites will result in anything but encouraging the regime to go nuclear.
I don't think invasion of Iran is possible.
I don't think Iran wants to be isolated.
The only solution I can think of is to ask Iran to suspend its programs for 5 years, provide her with nuclear fuel, and build mutual trust. 5 years is long enough to ease the tensions, and short enough for Iran to broadcast it as a temporary suspension (and to see if she is being played with). I Also can't think of any better time for Iran and US to negotiate and make up their attitudes. (I see benefits for US in Iraq, Palestine, and Afghanistan and I see more benefits for Iran).
Challenging Questions: Question 3.
Assume that Iran builds a nuclear warhead. What would Iran do with it? Would it hit Israel and kill Palestinians as well as the Jews? (I am assuming that the Iranian president hates Israel and Zionism, not the Jews. In fact the Jews in Iran are treated the same way ordinary Iranians are treated: they are both mistreated ! :) !).
PS. I don’t even think the Iranian government wants to sit on a nuke to be safe as peter suggests. I think they want to have the nuclear fuel cycle to have the capability of building a bomb, but not the bomb itself. I heard once from Javad Zarif that strategic calculation for Iran (which I am no expert of) does not recommend building a nuclear bomb and therefore it is against Iranian national interests. (can somebody repeat those calculations?)
Challenging Questions: Question 2.
Iran has repeatedly been criticized over its 18 years of concealment of its nuclear activities. My question is whether the steps they have been taking during the 18 years of concealment were towards producing nuclear arms or nuclear fuel? Bear in mind that two or three years ago, United Stated used to accuse Iran of having a covert nuclear arms program, and nowadays they warn others about Iran’s capability to build nuclear arms in future.
Challenging Questions: Question 1.
Assume Iran accepts to dismantle its enrichment facilities altogether for good. Would you think the international community (whose voices are only heard from certain countries!!) would say “OK. GOOD. We will help Iran complete its first nuclear power plant” (despite all the effort they have put into delaying its construction over the past 28 years)???